Blogging Ottinger (tim)

Okay, I think that television could really work out. There are some really crazy stretches here, but let’s play with the idea.

1. PVRs become pervasive. Everybody has them. Entire home networks like MythTV become common.
2. Networks broadcast to PVRs, intentionally. No broadcast flags and DRM nonsense. They provide content for download to PVR/player, and catalogs of programs.
3. Aware that people will skip commercials, but that people also love catalogs and reviews and product news shows, networks make commercials available for download in those formats.

Think about this for a minute, though it’s mighty unlikely.

PVRs and MP3 players are already the rage. We don’t watch 80 channels of 24-hour broadcasting every day (and not only because it’s impossible). Most people have a few shows they like, and they surf channels to see them. We aren’t loyal to the networks. We don’t care if we’re seeing our favorite stuff on HBO, CNN, Fox, NBC, or TNT. We’re all about shows, not networks. So in a PVR world, it’s much easier to work bandwidth-wise. You don’t have to send 80 channels of gunk 24 hours per day to every household. You can let them bittorrent the stuff that they actually want. You can track it better, you can charge for it, consumers can pay for a subscription (we already do) and networks can pay back the hot content producers.

The whole choice v. censorship bug can be resolved. Make all kinds of content available. Don’t bother with the censorship stuff, just tag it. See, right now it’s a problem because whatever the network send will come into our houses without us wanting it or having a voice. That’s wrong, because we want control of the content that comes to our house. Also, whatever the networks don’t send is not available to us, and that’s a first-amendment freedom problem. We want to have unpopular content available, and freedom for people who think differently from ourselves. The networks can’t win under this circumstance. You can’t send me all the stuff I want and filter all the stuff I don’t want, and you can’t send my personal channel to all the neighborhood and expect them to be happy. But what if it’s all available, but each family can choose what they want? Hmmm… now choice is individual, and freedom of content is corporate. Not a bad deal.

Networks can still make money because the “right” advertising is very attractive. People watch movie reviews shows and gadget news shows. People want to know about new technology, new cures, new food products, new recreational activities. I get catalogs from musical equipment stores and I love looking through sales papers. What if all advertising were done in that fashion? Frankly, I like to watch those shows that repackage old commercials “the best commercials of xxxx” or “funnies commercials”. I listen to the engadget podcasts because the new tech is cool. I would imagine that most people would be happy to take in hours per week of advertising. I can even imagine downloading something called “this week’s top 10 new commercials” or “favorite commercials” as a video to watch. What people hate is when semi-porn commercials are shown during kiddie times or when unwanted “dud” commercials are in tight rotation, or when there are commercials on for products and services they have no interest in watching. Strangely enough, shopping channels do an incredible business — why? It’s not advertising we hate, it’s the way it’s thrown at us. Given a choice, we’d probably go a while with no advertising, but then we’d wonder what goods and services we really want. We’d ask for ads from supermarkets, restaurants in our area, home improvement, house and garden stuff, new clothes fashions and prices, games and toys, food and drink, kitchen gadgets — eventually we’d be watching more advertising than we actually watch (as opposed to ignoring) now.

I can also see pseudo-networks of “recommended programs”. Reviewers and maybe even customers could vote and select programs. Nobody is going to watch the same old programs every week, so we’ll want to see what else is available. That means that we’ll want to see advertising for programs and advertising for other people’s lists of preferred programs.

I don’t even mind if my free content includes ads for other shows that I might like, along the line of Amazon recommendations. Nor do I mind targeted advertising based on the kinds of commercials and programs I’ve asked for. I could make compromises for the sake of an all ale carte world.

The thing that is really inverted in this picture is control, and that’s why it can’t work. It’s too perfect and utopian. It solves problems in a way that does not leave a monied minority in control of the masses, and control is the one thing you can’t wrest from monied interests. Our democracy is really a capitalism, and none of the content providers have the stones to give up control, even for the sake of big money. It will have to be the work of small entrepeneurs.

That means that in all likelihood, video podcasting will be the television of the future.